IVANN BIBI
Distraction. Test-run. These are the two words that spring to mind when I ponder over the by-elections held during the course of the past 9 years that MSM has been in power. To date two have been held. Both machiavellian in nature; however, one is by far more sinister in nature than the other. Let me explain.
I will start by what I deem to be the less sinister by-election of any during the past 9 years, that of the 2019 by-election in constituency #7. This was triggered with the resignation from Government and from Parliament of the then-Foreign Affairs Minister Vishnu Lutchmeenaraidoo (VL).
Mr VL exited the Mauritian political scene with quite a touch of theater, slamming the door behind him in early 2019, stating “Enough is Enough.” This unexpected move triggered a by-election that was due to be held before the end of 2019. As we all know today, that by-election never took place–despite the constant assurances by PM Pravind Jugnauth that it would indeed be held. It was averted by the calling of snap General Election by the then un-elected Prime Minister. It is safe to say, as I believe it was intended, the snap General Election of 2019 took everybody off-guard. The Mauritian public and the opposition, both parliamentary and extra-parliamentary, had expected the by-election to take place. But, it did not.
In my opinion this is a good example of MSM using a by-election as a distraction, in an anti-democratic and machiavellian way, as a political tool of mischief, in order to catch its adversaries off-guard and reap the benefits of such an undignified scheme.
Machiavellian indeed. But nothing in comparison, and far less sinister, than what I believe happened in the by-election of 2017. This was a “test-run” or as we say in the US, a “dry-run.”
Before I explain further, let us define what is in fact a “dry-run.” Oxford Dictionary defines “dry run” as “a rehearsal of a performance or procedure before the real one” (noun informal). And since the events of the 2017 by-election took place: I have always qualified it as a performance, an act, likeable in many manners to a theatrical performance; much like a Shakespearean play.
In order to decipher what exactly do I mean by this, let us re-cap the dramatic events that took place leading up to, and being directly responsible for, the by-election of 2017.
Enter Roshi Bhadain. He is our main character in the drama of the 2017 by-election. He was a former Minister of Good Governance in the Government “Lalyans Lepep,” who in dramatic never before seen political theatrical style, refused to attend the swearing in ceremony in January 2017 of the newly nominated Prime Minister, Pravind Kumar Jugnauth (PKJ) and his Government.
It is important to differentiate here between newly-elected and newly-nominated. The events surrounding the “nomination” of PKJ as PM are locally classified as the deal “papa-piti;” whereby former PM Anerood Jugnauth, father of PKJ, resigned as PM and in essence left the proverbial “throne” to his son. Viewed as a highly immoral act in many quarters, this was, to all intents and purposes, constitutionally sound. Although some may disagree.
Twist of events
Back to our main character in the by-election of 2017: as stated above, Mr Bhadain refused to attend the swearing in ceremony of PKJ and of himself as a Minister in the newly formed MSM Government under PKJ’s leadership. He instead resigned from the MSM, and took his place among the rank and file Parliamentary Opposition. A dramatic move indeed. Especially for someone who not so many months ago was lavishly praising PKJ publicly, going as far as to embrace his hand very publicly in the same manner as one does to a Monarch or the Pope.
Fast forward a few months, and Mr Bhadain has now formed and launched a new political party, the “Reform Party.” In a twist of events, he resigned from Parliament in an effort to stand again as a candidate in the very same constituency that he resigned from, under the banner of his newly formed political party. As you can see, this is quite the tale already. Bear with me, I’m just getting started.
Up until now, everything stated is pure unadultered facts. These are events that really did happen. Not opinions or speculations of a vivid imagination. I have opinions on why the said events did happen, such as my opinion that Mr VL’s resignation was a machiavellian tool in order to distract and catch the opposition off-guard. But the events surrounding my said speculations, and opinions, are indeed non-fiction.
I believe the same is true about what I am about to tell you: I believe that the 2017 by-election in constituency #18 Belle-Rose/Quatre-Bornes was a sinister machiavellian tool, triggered by a seemingly well-orchestrated set of events, akin to a Shakespearean play or of Sophocles’ “Oedipus Rex”; for the sole and unique purpose of triggering the by-election to be used as a dry run leading up to the next General Election (the General Election of 2019). This is my belief. This is my long-held theory. One that I have shared with many, many people over the years.
“Dry run”
Several questions will pop into the readers mind now: “So what was the “dry run” about? What did it entail? How was the by-election a “dry run?” Now that I have your undivided attention, I will attempt to explain as diligently as I know how. Simply put: I believe that the by-election of 2017 was a test of the mechanisms put in place by the MSM in order to steal the show in the then-upcoming general elections. Specifically, their plan to utilize drastic, and massive, voter suppression in order to win the next General Election (that of 2019).
It is not news that a significant portion of the electorate was unable to vote in the 2019 General Election. Official numbers from the Electoral Commission turn around 6,000-10,000 voters. I believe the number was indeed much higher. Potentially as high as 50,000 voters, some 2000-2500 per constituency. And, I think that this was no mistake; that this appears to be by design. I have my very own story about how I came to suspect that this was happening during the course of the 2017 by-election. However, due to lack of time and space here, I will potentially address those events in another article.
A dry run is “a rehearsal of a performance or procedure before the real one.” How many voters found themselves “de-registered” during the by-election of 2017? I know of a great many. Swathes of opposition partisans, in particular those of Labor and the PMSD, who were unable to participate in the by-election of 2017, much to their surprise. This includes PMSD candidate Mr Dhanesh Maraye who was unable to vote for himself in the by-election because he was NOT on the voter register: a fact that amazes him until today. To whose advantage was this? Was this not a dry run for things to come in the next General Election in Mauritius?
I said as much to members of my party at the time: stating this is just what happened in the 2016 US Presidential Election of Donald Trump, where huge numbers of Democratic voters were de-registered under the machiavellian scheme known as “cross-check” that was implemented by the Republican Governors in many States leading up to the 2016 US Presidential Election….
Simcard re-registrations
What is the point of a “dry run?” It is a test in order to finetune one’s performance or the procedures before the actual event or procedure takes place. It is an opportunity to “fine-tune” one’s performance, one’s procedures, one’s strategy. This is what I think the by-election of 2017 amounted to. Whether or not Mr Bhadain was consciously and actively complicit in such actions, I do not claim to know. I do, however, have my opinions on the matter. And I leave the said opinions and speculations to each and every one of you.
This brings us to the puzzling upcoming by-election of 2024, that of constituency #10, triggered by MSM member Mr Vikram Hurdoyal. Even more puzzling is the fact that Mr Hurdoyal, unlike Mr Bhadain and Mr Lutchmeenaraidoo, is STILL a member of MSM, despite having resigned from Parliament after his extremely shameful and publicly humiliating revocation as Minister of Agriculture whilst still outside of the country.
Is this a distraction, or a dry run? Or maybe it is both?
Today I will take the position that it is indeed a “dry run.” Much more sinister, and exponentially more machiavellian, than a distraction–as described above. Under this optic, the by-election will indeed take place. Most probably as a snap by-election somewhere after May 1 2024. It could however come before. The minimum delay for a by-election is 31 days after the issuance of the “writ of election.”
Why after 1st of May? Because this is the deadline for the new simcard re-registrations: and I believe that the new simcard re-registration regulations, coupled with the new “National ID Card” (specifically the issuance of virtual/digital National ID cards) are part and parcel of a new machiavellian scheme in view of the next upcoming General Elections by the MSM.
It is important to note that May 1st is the deadline for simcard re-registration nationwide; however a dry run, by way of a by-election in #10, to test a machiavellian scheme need not wait for that. It would more likely depend on the percentage of registered voters in #10 that have re-registered their simcards: in order for the dry run to be viable.
Importantly, there is a marked difference between the crude schemes surrounding voter suppression tactics and that of digital identity theft in order to upset an election. One being explicitly more rudimentary than the other. Truth be told, depending on the viability and sophistication of the scheme and the system: a dry run may not even be necessary.
In sum, I believe, should it take place, that the by-election in constituency #10 is “a rehearsal of a performance or procedure before the real one.” Specifically to a machiavellian scheme with regard to the next General Election. Time will tell.