As the year is coming to an end, the trimmings have taken over and dominate the daily routine. It’s a crazy time: shopping, holiday plans, new resolutions and so on. Those who have the means can do all the planning and eliminate the choices. Lured by the power of advertising and the focus on consumption, the average citizen enters the festive mood, like millions around the world. Let’s put the cliches aside and reflect on some serious issues that will affect our lives in 2023.
In retrospect, the year 2022 has been a field year for the media. While millions are displaced by wars, adverse climatic conditions, and urbanisation, two events stole the headlines: the war in Ukraine and the death of Queen Elizabeth II. Add the Fifa World Cup 2022 in Qatar, the list is almost complete.
In retrospect
The war in Ukraine is a tragedy. All wars are tragic, but this one is a sad state of affairs. It has been around for several years but eventually Russia was pushed to the limit and a war of superpowers is being fought on Ukrainian soil. The causes of this war have been debated extensively and at the end of the day, it depends on which front you are looking. The ideological differences are evident. The west and western Europe have always considered Russia as a prize possession. Napoleon invaded it and had to retreat. Hitler was badly defeated as he tried to capture Russia. The Cold War that was triggered after the Second World War, tried to corner Russia or the Soviet Union at that time, but could not push the leadership out of the Kremlin. The consequences of any conflict that involves Russia has global implications and immense repercussions. The fall out in 2022, was felt across the world, creating misery for many and opportunities for a few.
The death of Queen Elizabeth II showed how she had a stronghold on power and kept the royal family where it belonged. Her popularity around the world is unquestioned and her grace was reflected in many of her actions. Whether one supports the Royal family or not, she has entered the history book as the longest serving monarch. Finally, Charles took the throne and as the new monarch he has a tough task of following his mother’s
footsteps. The Royal family is itself going through a period of “internal” dissent and the family in 2023 will see further turbulence.
The FIFA World Cup 2022 held in Qatar showed the great cultural divide and the colonial mentality that still prevails in the minds of many and the institutions that help to reinforce it. When Qatar won the bid to host the greatest sporting event, it sent shock waves and the reactions continued until the start of the finals in November 2022. Some media from former colonial powers led by England, France, Germany and Belgium, hammered the Qatari regime and made accusations after accusations to show that Qatar was unfit to host the event. Such indignations, mostly unjustified, were an attempt to flex the economic might of the west and its cultural superiority. Claims such as abuse of human rights, corruptions, sexual orientations, and scandals, dominated the headlines. When the “beautiful game” started with an opening ceremony that touched millions and showed that Qatar would not be intimidated, the world witnessed a tournament unseen before. Qatar defended itself from the barrage of criticisms from the western media. It showed the world a new face of Arab culture and sent some powerful messages on unity, tolerance and solidarity.
The very sports gurus that were critical of the tournament being held in Qatar, acclaimed as the best hosted. The tournament also showed that the European elite football nations could be succumbed by the likes of Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Senegal. While Argentina won the World Cup, the tournament was also a victory for the underdogs. The west could not digest the class performance by Qatar. The colonial mentality of the west was challenged and Africa has put its signature on the beautiful game. In short, Europe should examine its own history over the last one thousand years before making cultural judgements. Who invented racism and practised racial genocide? Pretty evident. Racism will not go away in 2023. If FIFA does not become more inclusive, a new tournament, like what we have seen in professional golf, could become an alternative.
The forthcoming challenges
The new year will not see significant changes to the existing world order but will see challenges coming from China and Saudi Arabia, two economic giants that will make their presence felt. The war in Ukraine will linger on unless there is a reversal of position by USA and its allies in Europe. Request for NATO membership by some Scandinavian countries will see a repositioning of allegiances. Turkey will play a major role in getting the situation settled. Ukraine President will have to go. Putin will not negotiate with him. Western media thrives on war and conflicts. The war could draw other nations and that would create a different scenario. There is no urgency to end the war.
The energy crisis caused by the Ukraine war in 2022 will continue to affect those countries dependent on gas supply from Russia. The need for oil and gas will see players like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Nigeria flexing their muscles. The price of crude oil will be more stable than 2022.
Iran will be on the headlines. For many in the west, Iran is an irritation but also a good distraction from domestic issues. The Iranian leadership will stay solid, and the rhetoric will not stop in 2023. North Korea, another irritation will be a thorn for the west and South Korea, but no major escalation in that part of the world.
There will be further austerity monetary policies and the wounds will get deeper in developing countries. The inflation rate will rise and the cost of living in many parts of the world will reduce the standard of living for the lower income earners. A wage increase of up to 20% will be required to keep inflation in par. Many countries cannot afford such an increase. Standard of living will decrease and poverty inevitably, will increase. Expect economic decadence, followed by more turmoil and lop-sided development.
The richer countries in Europe and North America will be confronted with new challenges as their economies try to pick up from the pandemic. The biggest challenge will be that of human resources. Faced by an aging population and a low birth rate, the need for both skilled and semi-skilled workers will see more immigrant workers landing in Canada, United States, England, France, Germany, Australia, and others. Professional workers will be lured by new incentives from these countries. The developing countries will provide a pool of labour with the cream of the crop seeking greener pastures elsewhere. Some of these countries will provide fast-track immigration services. Canada has already indicated its attempt to boost up immigration to 500,000 in 2023. Is it globalisation of labour or brain drain? Good debate.
Natural calamities
Global warming will have further impact on climatic change in 2023. There are indications that there will be severe adverse weather conditions on all the continents. From floods to drought and ice storms, climate change will be on the global agenda. The debates will continue while the efforts will remain pretty much what was seen in 2022. New promises and pledges were made, and it will be interesting to see if these hold. The misery caused by climate change will create more “climate refugees”. There is some hope that President Lula in Brazil will stop deforestation and save the indigenous people in the Amazon. We could see a new approach to deforestation led by President Lula. There is some hope here.
Growth and opportunities
Many will talk of a possible global recession, but there will be opportunities in the following sectors:
Travel and tourism
Hospitality
Construction
IT
Health
Education
Covid-19 slowed down growth. As the pandemic is gradually coming under control, the above sectors will try to catch up. Thus, they are key areas that will see growth and expansion. The auto industry along with the airline industry, will expand. But they need to inject new skills and workers into this sector. Health and education will be prime, and governments would be wise to revamp past policies and reinvent delivery and practices.
The fall out from 2022 will continue into further economic decline. China will probably have a better growth rate than 2022, but it has its own Covid challenges. China is still trying to get a hold on Covid-19, and it will suffer restraint because of the virus. If there is a slow down in China, there will be hiccups elsewhere. The economic crisis within the European Union will be a cause for concern. If the recent bribery scandals confirm corruption among its elected officials, its version of democracy will be questioned. The hint is that bribery and corruption is a global phenomenon.
There is no need to press the panic button as the world welcomes the new year. As 2022 is ending, the celebration will be short-lived. The coming challenges will be hard to put aside. The pandemic is no longer in the headlines, but the consequences of the past three years will be felt into the new year. How long could the planet sustain its 8 billion inhabitants? Whether it is climatic change or food distribution, no major reversal of policies is expected in 2023. A planet that is characterized by greed is putting a damp on its own survival. The good news is that we are still breathing and if we turn this into hope, perhaps 2023 could be healthier than 2022.
Greetings. Peace and good health.
