SUNIL DOWARKASING
A proposal
For Mauritius, an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) should be both ambitious and credible, tailored to its status as a Small Island Developing State (SIDS) highly vulnerable to climate impacts. The contents should meet UNFCCC guidelines while addressing local realities.
The proposals outlined below would have provided a stronger, more ambitious, and better-aligned framework for Mauritius’s NDC, offering realistic pathways to accelerate the energy transition, enhance adaptation, and strengthen climate resilience.
- Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Targets
Mauritius’s first NDC in 2016 pledged a 30% cut in carbon emissions by 2030, yet emissions have climbed instead, rising by an average of 3.3% annually. When the time came in 2021 to raise ambition, the government conjured in NDC 2.0 up a 40% reduction target with no scientific grounding, no credible roadmap, and no accountability—after burning through Rs 5 million of funds. This was not climate leadership; it was political theatre.
The NDC 3.0, delivered just days ago in 2025, maintains the same 40% emissions reduction target as its predecessor, but with a critical shift: the timeframe has been extended to 2035. In other words, the headline figure remains unchanged while the deadline is pushed further away. Without bold and decisive measures, Mauritius risks repeating the inertia of the past decade — where ambition on paper has not translated into transformative action on the ground.
Below are my humble suggestions for a new NDC based on real facts.
1.1 Baseline
- Reference year: 2015
- Total national emissions (excluding LULUCF): ~4.5 MtCO2e
1.2 Unconditional Target
- Reduce economy-wide GHG emissions by 35% below BAU (Business-as-Usual) by 2030, without external financial support. [this emission target contradicts the 2021 submission but this one is honest and doable].
1.3 Conditional Target
- Reduce emissions by 50% below BAU by 2030, conditional on international climate finance, technology transfer, and capacity building.
1.4 Sectoral Breakdown
- Energy sector: Decarbonisation through rapid expansion of renewables, grid efficiency, and 60% phase-out of coal by 2030.
- Transport sector: Electrification of 60% of public and private vehicle fleets by 2035.
- Waste sector: 40% increase in methane capture from landfill gas by 2030.
- Agriculture: Reduction of nitrous oxide emissions through improved fertiliser management and climate-smart farming.
- Renewable Energy Target
This gap between ambition and delivery exposes a systemic failure of governance, planning, and political will. Instead of scaling up solar, wind, and biomass at pace, the country has turned to short-term fixes like energy barges, locking Mauritius deeper into fossil dependence. Renewable energy share (9.1% in 2024) lags far behind the NDC 2.0 goal of 60% by 2030.
NDC 3.0 brings no real departure from the past. It replays the same old storyline that has yet to materialize: increasing the share of renewables in electricity generation, gradually phasing out coal, and promoting sugarcane biomass alongside solar and wind. Even OTEC, first floated as a future pilot in NDC 2.0, reappears in NDC 3.0 without any concrete progress. The document risks becoming more of a recycled wish list than a transformative roadmap.
Below are the energy targets that our NDC should have contained.
2.1 Electricity Generation
- Achieve 60% renewable energy share in the electricity mix by 2030 (unconditional).
- Achieve 80% renewable energy share by 2035 (conditional).
2.2 Technology Mix
- Solar PV: 400 MW installed capacity by 2030.
- Wind: 50 MW installed capacity by 2030.
- Ocean energy (wave, tidal, OTEC): 10 MW pilot deployment by 2030.
- Battery energy storage systems (BESS): 150 MWh capacity installed by 2028.
2.3 Grid and Energy Efficiency
- Invest massively in modernisation of a de-centralised grid system.
- Reduce electricity transmission and distribution losses to below 6% by 2030.
- Implement smart metering nationwide by 2027.
- Biodiversity Conservation Targets
Mauritius has failed its adaptation programme largely because excellent plans on paper were never matched by concrete action. Since 2012, the country has had one of the most comprehensive adaptation frameworks among Small Island States, covering coastal protection, water security, agriculture, fisheries, and disaster risk reduction — but implementation has been crippled by chronic underfunding, fragmented governance, and weak enforcement. Projects are often delayed or abandoned, with coastal erosion, flooding, and drought risks worsening year after year. Instead of building resilience, Mauritius has remained locked in a cycle of reports, consultancy studies, and pilot projects, while climate impacts outpace the state’s response, turning one of the best adaptation blueprints into a showcase of missed opportunities.
In both NDC 2.0 and NDC 3.0, adaptation remains central, reflecting Mauritius’s acute vulnerability as a small island developing state. The same priority sectors are reiterated: water security, agriculture, fisheries, health, biodiversity, and coastal resilience. Coral reef and mangrove restoration continue to feature prominently as flagship nature-based solutions. The only genuinely new element introduced in NDC 3.0 is the proposed launch of a blue carbon program, aimed at restoring degraded marine ecosystems and integrating ocean carbon into national climate accounting by 2030.
The proposals outlined below would have provided a stronger, more ambitious, and better-aligned framework for Mauritius’s NDC, offering realistic pathways to accelerate the energy transition, enhance adaptation, and strengthen climate resilience.
3.1 Marine Ecosystems
- Protect 30% of the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) as Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) by 2030.
- Restore 10,000 hectares of degraded coral reef ecosystems through coral gardening and artificial reef structures by 2030.
3.2 Terrestrial Ecosystems
- Increase native forest cover from 19% to 25% of total land area by 2030.
- Eradicate key invasive alien species from priority biodiversity hotspots by 2028.
3.3 Nature-based Solutions (NbS)
- Implement mangrove restoration on 200 hectares of degraded coastline by 2030 to enhance carbon sequestration and coastal protection.
- Integrate NbS into national disaster risk management and urban planning policies.
- Implementation &
Monitoring Framework
Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of Mauritius’s NDC has failed because the country has built institutional structures without ensuring follow-through, transparency, or accountability. A dedicated NDC registry, GHG inventory systems, and reporting frameworks were created, often with international donor support, but they remain underutilised and poorly integrated across ministries.
Data collection is fragmented, energy, transport, agriculture, and waste sectors all report differently, with delays and inconsistencies making it nearly impossible to track whether sectoral targets are on course.
Most importantly, there is no independent oversight body to verify progress, meaning reports rely on government self-assessment that tends to emphasise intentions over measurable outcomes. The following measures need to be be included in the NDC.
- MRV System: Establish and operationalise a robust Measurement, Reporting, and Verification system by 2026, compliant with the Enhanced Transparency Framework of the Paris Agreement.
- Provide technical training and resources for data collection, analysis, and reporting across ministries.
- Policy Integration: Embed NDC targets into national legislation, sectoral policies, and budgetary frameworks.
- Review Cycle: Submit biennial progress reports, with mid-term review in 2027.
- Means
of Implementation
Financial tracking is another major weakness: while Mauritius committed to mobilising billions for mitigation and adaptation, budget allocations and expenditures are not transparently linked to NDC goals. The result is that progress is judged on plans announced rather than emissions reduced or resilience built, turning monitoring and evaluation into a box-ticking exercise rather than a tool for course correction.The financing requirement has risen significantly: from an estimated USD 3.2 billion for 2025–2035 to USD 5.7 billion for 2026–2035, reflecting the scale of investment needed. The new NDC underscores Mauritius’s continued heavy reliance on international climate finance, technology transfer, and strategic partnerships to meet its targets. Then following sources have to be fully explored; domestic budget allocation, Green Climate Fund, Adaptation Fund, concessional loans and bilateral partnerships.
- Technology needs: Renewable energy storage, electric vehicle infrastructure, advanced climate modeling, biodiversity monitoring tools.
- Capacity building: Technical training for renewable energy integration, ecosystem restoration, and MRV system operation.
- Concluding notes
Our climate policy has become little more than political theatre; grand promises scripted for international audiences, but empty of substance at home. Mauritius’s absence is more than a missed deadline, it exposes a troubling lack of seriousness and a deepening pattern of negligence that risks reducing its climate promises to hollow declarations.
For a country that faces existential threats from climate change, this failure does not just weaken its credibility abroad, it strips Mauritius of the moral authority to demand stronger action from the world.
(The End)
ACCROCHE
Mauritius has failed its adaptation programme largely because excellent plans on paper were never matched by concrete action. Since 2012, the country has had one of the most comprehensive adaptation frameworks among Small Island States, covering coastal protection, water security, agriculture, fisheries, and disaster risk reduction—but implementation has been crippled by chronic underfunding, fragmented governance, and weak enforcement.
