Kailash M. Nunkoo.
BTech – IIT Bombay, CQE & CSSGB – ASQ.
Who are the “silent majority”? All the people have the same aspirations, needs and dreams. However, there can be different styles and philosophies which blur the analysis.
In all the countries, in all the elections and changes of regime, there are basically two sides, those who want change and those who want status-quo. These two types of people exist in many forms and are called by various names around the world. Those who want change towards more progressist/liberal/ modern values in the US are usually called the “Liberals” and support the Democratic Party. Those who are more traditional/ conservative /nostalgic of the past are usually called the “Conservatives” in the US and support the Republican Party. There are extremists on both sides, the “Wokes” and the “Nationalists”. The attractiveness of progressive and conservative ideas depends on the Fears and Hopes they stir in people. Fear makes Conservative ideas stronger, and hope, the Progressive ideas. The conservative forces have become stronger in many countries like USA, France and India due to fear caused by “declinism”, racism, war, terrorism, or too rapid changes caused by globalization and climate changes. It’s a reaction to changes – Newton’s laws!
Conservative Vs Progressive Forces
The election data of 1982 reveals that 28% of the voters were against the revolutionary change represented by the MMM-PSM coalition and sided with the outgoing Labour-PMSD coalition. Each time there was a 60-0 score, the defeated side got between 27%-30% of the votes. In the 2024 general elections, the out-going government got 27% of the votes. This represents the minimum level of the Conservative Forces in Mauritius. Hence one-third of Mauritians are always against change! This is either due to fear, vested interests or ignorance.
In the year 2005, another revolutionary idea was the proposal of having Paul Bérenger as Prime Minister against Navin Ramgoolam. This event is an opportunity to uncover and measure the main forces in politics: Progressive/ Liberal Forces and Conservative Forces. The Progressive/Liberal forces wanted Paul Bérenger, the first non-Hindu and white person to be elected as Prime Minister while the Conservative Forces were against it and wanted to maintain a Hindu, Navin Ramgoolam as Prime Minister. The Conservative Forces were greater – 48% of the votes against 42%. Hence, we can say that the highest level of the Conservative Forces was at 48% and the highest level of the Progressive Forces was at 42% in Mauritius. It is to be noted that the two sides were each headed by the most charismatic personalities, including SAJ who supported Paul Bérenger. SAJ and Paul Bérenger together could not overcome the Conservative Forces, in the absence of deep social crisis. So how could Linion Reform or Linion Moris?
In order to make an impact in 2024, they should have attracted more of the Progressive voters. Using the Marketing 4P’s: their Product (the revolutionary ideas) was badly Promoted (Communication about the 100+20 Reforms) with the wrong Timing (wrong Place in history) by uncharismatic Personalities (the Price people pay is their trust they place in the charismatic personalities, not programs, yet). They should wait to promote clear incremental changes at the right time. But their ideas were good for them from their frame of reference…which brings us to the next fundamental force.
Frames of References
This concept is borrowed from the field of Physics again. A frame of reference is the position and direction from which you observe and measure external events. Simple events can mean different things from different frames of reference. Politicians, pollsters, political experts and voters each have different frames of references, because they see and feel things in different conditions! Why did Linion Reform propose the 100+20 Reforms? According to the frame of reference of its leader, these reforms were necessary and were long awaited by intelligent voters…who could understand the reforms and the impact of the changes. In fact, just about 5% of the voters fall into this category! But that can change in deep crisis…Similarly to whom was the out-going government’s slogan “Pli for ansam” targeted? In their frame of reference, they needed to project force to face up to the two adverse charismatic leaders. In fact, they needed the slogan to boost their own self-confidence!
Frames of references make us project our own perceptions to the event we are observing.
Additionally, wrong communication reinforced their frame of reference, making them believe that voters were insensitive to the different scandals, the malfunctioning institutions, and various abuses such as the crack-down on opponents inside or outside the parliament, and they were made to believe that voters were impressed by the new infra-structures, and could be manipulated along socio-demographic criteria!
While from their own frame of reference, the voters did not approve of the government’s attitude and inactions! From their frame of reference, L’Alliance du Changement was the less complicated choice! The political Product (“Changement”) was clear, on time (good Place in history) and communicated (Promoted) effectively by charismatic leaders (for whom they were ready to pay the Price of their trust).
Kano Principle
Another fundamental force is the continuous change of people’s aspirations over time. Fifty years ago, freedom of expression was just an exotic idea. Communalism and racism (including the Indian variety of casteism) which the so-called “socio-cultural” groups maintained selfishly, were very strong. However, we discovered a stronger Mauritianism, and patriotism with the Wakashio episode. Wrong communication within the government, to fit their frame of reference, made them believe that the reaction of people was mere agitation caused by a well-known activist. In fact, it was an early signal of the tsunami!
People now want more democracy, justice, meritocracy and accountability with a higher standard of living. Ideas which were considered “avant-guardist” are now necessities! In Marketing this is explained by the Kano Principle – whereby past luxuries become today’s necessities, and new tastes are developed that become very attractive to people. If in the past people had been impressed by new infrastructures (because they were lacking) and by electoral promises (because the majority were poor), that is not enough today! People have also changed in the way they access and process information, their general knowledge and appreciation of history are different. People do not have time and patience for great analysis (until they are in deep crisis)! They are hence easily impressed by charismatic leaders, irrespective of their intellect and ideas, who gain importance worldwide, even in great democracies like the US and India.
Since the first principles of democracy were drafted in the US in 1776, the Mechanics of Politics are changing and straining the foundations of democracy worldwide. The framework presented is not a definitive one, and it is a “thought experiment” and an invitation to take part in it.
(The End)
