ARVIN BOOLELL
The withdrawal of NATO allies from Afghanistan is a new dawn for the Taliban regime much to the discontent and fear of a sizeable number of Afghans. It is a war-torn country with rulers in different provinces. The ‘Infidels’ have gone and many evacuees are still left behind. The ray of hope should be kept alive as political dialogue is ongoing between the Taliban authorities and the US and UK in Doha to create a safe passage.
Reconciliation is a tall order as it is in nobody’s interest to allow a free-fall. Don’t throw the baby out with the bath water to the ‘butchers of al-Qaeda or Isis’. The Talibans remain the beacon of hope unless they do not comply fully to the agreement of the accord concluded with US.
Consequences of Inevitable Fall
The fall of a tolerant but corrupt Afghanistan Government has given rise to the Islamic state of Afghanistan. The failure for the setting up a Government of National Unity to prepare for an arduous and painful transition was due to the obstinacy of the previous Government to have meaningful dialogue with the Talibans at scheduled meetings in Doha. Unfortunately all governments propped up by the US have been inept and corrupt. Millions of dollars have been siphoned into accounts in different jurisdictions. The Taliban authorities need recognition to maintain cohesion and have a pull effect vis-à-vis provinces which may drift.
Role of G-7
There is more than a clarion call for an international plan – a win-win policy would be the outcome however weak it may be. G7 should put up a common front. Iran, a non-OPEC member, is a troublemaker.
“The West must recognize immediately the Taliban to avoid another 9/11 attack”. Is it cautious advice or open threat tendered by Pakistan security adviser ?
The Taliban should have a right to legitimacy if not it would be difficult to rein in al-Qaeda and ISIS. Assets which have been frozen should be released and meaningful Political dialogue should start.
G7 should negotiate firmly to pave the way to airlift remaining evacuees. Taliban regime will compromise on issues ranging from peace to trade, commerce and cross cutting issues are relevant to the reconstruction process.
IRAN
According to strategic paper by BESA, “Amid celebrations in Tehran, Raisi Iran’s new hard-line President announced that the ignominious American collapse signals the coming of a new international order, with Russia and China forming a credible bloc against the US. President Raisi is hoping to expedite multibillion-dollar agreements with Moscow and Beijing and attain full membership in the all-important Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Raisi has expressed confidence that the new realignment will help Iran evade sanctions and also protect it at the United Nations.”
New Cold War and the Arms Bazaar
The new International order will usher in a New Cold War and accentuate cyber warfare. China will be more aggressive in the Indian Ocean and its One Belt One Road policy will be pivotal. The straits of Hormuz and Malacca can be blocked to cut its supply of petroleum products from OPEC and Iran.
The presence of India on Agalega and US in Diego and the major defence partner concluded between the two and joint military exercise by quad countries in the Indo-Pacific region will heighten tension as China will weave its string of pearls. The world has become more dangerous and, make no mistake, the bazaar of arms, drugs and money laundering will be a major part of the new order. It’s up to the international Community to come together in regional and multilateral fora to act decisively and promptly to ward off the threats.
The UN Security Council has to deliver.
Bread and butter matter, and Taliban should remember that Afghanistan was getting $ 6-7 billion economic and military assistance from NATO. It is not always easy to turn to new allies like China and Russia.