Manoeuvring against discontent 

The billions spent on gargantuan infrastructural projects, the strong arm tactics against adversaries, the prime ministerial-like image of Jugnauth crafted by marketers and the carrots fed to the population notwithstanding, those in power only managed to sway 37.7% of votes in their favour in 2019. Despite an often-clueless opposition, there is concern among those with strong interest and sizeable gains in perpetuating the present regime that the ground might be slipping from their feet as a result of the accumulation of the many scandals and the monster that inflation is. The latter might lead their grip on their vote banks to wane. With an economic system that thrives on a weak rupee, price rises cannot be tamed for very long as the population shall discover soon enough. The attempt of the government to generate a feel-good mood through money distribution may never quite materialise.

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Carter as lodestar

That the MSM’s Minister of Finance chose a Jimmy Carter quote as epigraph for the budget should come as no surprise. The parallels are glaring. Burton I. Kaufman and Scott Kaufman, authors of a seminal work on Carter, write of his presidency;

“he was a president who never adequately defined a mission for his government, a purpose for the country, and a way to get there.”

There is not much of a roadmap for the country these days; where do we go from here? Where are the new sectors? Where do the new jobs come from? How do we correct inequality? How do we stop the rampant corruption? Incidentally, the parallels might not stop there. Carter had a rabid hate for his predecessor, Gerald Ford, and would ask his advisers the same question every single day:

“Don’t you think I should put Gerald in jail? […] I can do that, right? Send someone who lost the election and no longer has any official political power to prison, just because I feel like it?”

The fake good factor

As expected, a cunning budget was presented to quell the growing restlessness of voters. I say ‘cunning’ for it is not built on profound intelligence, i.e neither one that understands never mind corrects the many nagging woes of our society nor does it hold up to the ‘progressive’ cachet that has been ascribed to it by ‘experts’. There are, as in all budgets, some inspired measures like the one advocating an inheritance for all but even that is shabbily dressed with little explanation on the philosophy behind it (“It is our contribution for them to start a new chapter of their life.”) In 2015, I penned an article based on Anthony Atkinson’s book on Inequality. One of the bold ideas propounded in his work is that of an inheritance for all.

“Atkinson reminds us that inheritance allows the wealthy to conserve their position at the top of distribution. To counter this, he recommends that a capital endowment (minimum inheritance) should be paid at adulthood. An idea dating back to Thomas Paine who advised the creation of a national fund from which every person reaching the age of 21 was offered a compensation for the loss as the result of landed property. In modern times, this ‘inheritance’ could take the form of a start-up grant for young people as recommended by Le Grand and Reich.” 

What this government does instead of elevating this measure to a stepping stone for young people is reduce it is to a mere gift. Could it not have been linked to the creation of an enterprise, or vocational and academic uplifting for those individuals? Most certainly but this Government has transformed it into yet another electoral carrot.

Socialism à la Padayachy

In the present exercise, Padayachy dutifully follows the capitalists’ demands and paves way for the easier recruitment of foreign workers thereby further exposing Mauritian workers to lower wages and layoffs. This is the MSM’s way of caring for them apparently. The much hyped progressive tax is very much a misnomer. Without the solidarity tax, high income earners (above Rs 3M) will now be paying 20% instead of 40% under the previous regime. How can this be termed ‘progressive’? 

The deterioration of public education (laid bare in the Parliament with results of the extended programme and its 2% pass rate) and health (where a lack of leadership seems evident) have not been addressed. This will further be accelerated with the decision to resort to private services instead of bolstering public hospitals for eye surgeries.  

This socialism à la Padayachy is no socialism at all. Shunning direct taxes in favour of consumption taxes which will impact poor families most is not progressive. The writing is on the wall, while the most well off will be paying less taxes, the bulk of the burden will be shouldered by the middle and lower classes.

Window dressing and several flyovers

The more astute observers highlight that the deficit of 3.9% of GDP does not include expenditure incurred by Special Funds standing at Rs 6.2B. For 2023-24 the budget deficit estimate is 4.9% of GDP but excludes spending to the tune of Rs 18.7B made from special funds. Greater transparency on the state of our finances from those pretending to guide us is mandatory.

Developing the tramway network across the country seems to be an obsession of the present regime, sometimes against logic with La Vigie earmarked to be connected next. But even that pales in comparison with the speed with which flyovers are being constructed. 4 new ones will be built and delivered by August 2024. With the country living above its means, were these projects required in a most urgent manner.

Former economist of a section of the private sector, Padayachy’s doctoral dissertation dealt with an analysis of poverty in Mauritius. His penultimate budget leaves little doubt on where his allegiances lie. 

References:

https://chetanramchurn.wordpress.com/2015/09/03/tilted-scales-by-chetan-ramchurn-le-mauricien-2nd-september-2015/

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/01/14/carterism

https://www.lemauricien.com/actualites/societe/cancers-a-maurice-en-2021-mortalite-en-hausse-de-10-et-leger-recul-de-06-des-cas-detectes/540678/

https://www.lemauricien.com/le-mauricien/parlement-lechec-de-lextended-programme-fait-monter-la-tension/556486/

https://www.mauritiusbudget.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Budget_Speech_Eng.pdf

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