With the blatantly illegal attack on Iran by the US and Israel in February of this year, how far will the Empire go to topple the current Iranian Government in its quest to maintain hegemony? An overview of recent history is required to address that burning question.
The 20th century began with 2 major geopolitical events that are still shaping the world more than 100 years later. Notably World War I (WW1) and the Russian Bolshevik Revolution, these 2 events saw the collapse of several large empires such as the Austro-Hungarian, German, Ottoman and Russian Empires. World War 2 is a continuation of these 2 events. It saw the collapse of the Japanese Empire and the concomitant emergence of the United States of America (US) and the Soviet Union as super powers and the rise of Communist China (1948) as a major regional power. Those events brought about the collapse of the Colonial Empires of the United Kingdom (UK), France and the Netherlands.
A new era had begun. During WW1, in 1916, the UK and France had signed a secret pact, the Sykes Picot agreement, dividing West Asia (Middle East) into respective spheres of influence as they anticipated the fall of the Ottoman Empire that had ruled the region for about 400 years.
What the European powers wanted to avoid at all cost was the emergence of a powerful Arab state after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. With an overall land mass of 3.7 million square kilometres and maybe 50 million people in 1920, any large Arab state in West Asia (The Middle East) could very well be a powerful challenger to European Hegemony. Hence the Sykes Picot Agreement. Oil had been discovered in Persia (modern day Iran) in 1908 and it was becoming essential for most modern form of transportations, especially maritime ships, inclusive of navies. Presumably the European Colonial powers of the time must have suspected that more oil were to be discovered in the region.
West Asia was also very important as a gateway to the rest of Asia, Africa and Europe via the Suez Canal and other trade routes. The strategic importance of West Asia was considerable, to say the least. In that perspective, the Balfour declaration of 1917 (whereby the then British Foreign Secretary Arthur Balfour offered to Lord Walter Rothschild British support for a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine) takes on a new twist. Most probably, the British Government of the time decided to instrumentalise Jewish Zionism to set up a proxy European Colonial Jewish state in the heart of Arab lands. The purpose was to protect British interests by disrupting any attempts to create a large Arab state.
This policy of divide to rule worked wonderfully well as West Asia has stayed fragmented and in the grips of intermittent wars ever since. Nevertheless, WW2 proved catastrophic for the British Empire as it began to unravel fairly quickly once the war was over. In the meantime, large oil and natural gas fields had been discovered in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The strategic importance of West Asia was now obvious to all.
The second event that shook the world during WW1 was the Russian Revolution. It was a direct attack on the rich and powerful who had never felt so threatened since the French revolution of 1789. This successful revolution inspired many across Europe and its European colonies, including in West Asia (Middle East). There were a number of socialist upheavals or revolutions across West Asia and North Africa in the fifties and sixties, notably in Egypt, Libya, Syria, Iraq and Iran.
The Arab Monarchies took fright and quickly realised that only the US was powerful enough to protect them from socialist revolutions. Defence Alliances between Arab Monarchies and the US were now inevitable. Furthermore, the US has always been very hostile to any socialist or communist governments. Hence there was a natural tendency for Arab Monarchies to drift towards the US, after all, monarchies do not tend to be socialist nor communist! This alliance consolidated in 1973 – 1974 when Nixon stopped the convertibility of US dollars into gold as this mechanism was draining the gold reserves of the US. Instead all international oil purchases were henceforth to be settled in US dollars. This move, led by Saudi Arabia, guaranteed a continued demand for US dollars.
It was a mutually beneficial arrangement: the oil producing Gulf States sell in dollars which are then re-injected in the US economy, in return they are offered military protection by the US whose economy benefit from a large influx of dollars. This arrangement has allowed the US to ramp up a huge trade deficit and an equally large Federal Debt financed by US Treasury bonds. The US could also outspend any other power on the planet in terms of military budgets. The Petro-Dollar was born. This arrangement made sense as besides the US no other country in the world at that time had a powerful enough economy to handle the considerable influxes of capital involved.
Then came the Iranian Islamic Revolution which overthrew the Shah of Iran in 1979. This dealt a significant blow to the regional US power structure, for since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, few regional countries were free from Western hegemony. Immediately and ever since, successive US administrations have maintained and expanded sanctions against Iran and have conspired to destroy Iran. For instance, the Iran – Iraq war of 1980 – 1988 was partially instigated by the US and other European countries. However, the war ended with a stalemate. That historical fact shows the resilience of Iran. A lesson worth remembering today.
In an interview a four star US general in retirement reported that in 2001, the then Bush administration was planning to attack at least four countries in West Asia over the next few years, notably Iraq (2003), Syria (2011 – 2024), Libya (2011), and Iran (2025-2026). It appears that a long term strategy was being prepared by the Bush administration of the time to conquer and subjugate West Asia and that this plan was and is being implemented across different US administrations, whether democrat or republican.
With the rise of China as the de facto challenger of the US and with the emergence of Russia as a superpower in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, the need to maintain hegemony over West Asia is even more pressing. China requires both West Asia and Russia’s oil and gas thus the US needs to keep control over these vital resources to remain relevant in the current state of world affairs.
The situation for the US becomes even more pressing with the establishment of the BRICS alliance that regroups Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Indonesia.
What began as a diplomatic forum for emerging markets and developing countries has quickly become a platform for economic cooperation and for a decreased reliance on the US dollar. US hegemony is now at risk and the US counter strategy is simple: break Iran to break up the BRICS alliance and then confront Russia and China. This may well be the strategy of the current Trump administration too, in direct line with its predecessors. Presumably, China and Russia are perfectly aware of that. Hence, the iron clad support they provide Iran. The stakes are high. Israel, as the US’s attack dog, enthusiastically support this aggressive strategy as in return it believes it can dominate West Asia and that its security can only be assured when its neighbours are weak and divided. It is an unwise belief because without unconditional US support Israel cannot dominate West Asia. Any US strategic failure and Israel becomes weak and highly vulnerable and may be left twisting in the wind.
The illegal and unjustified attack on Iran of February 2026 has shown the resilience of Iran and its people. It is turning out that Iran is a tough nut to crack as it was in the 1980 – 1988 war. Trump has announced an indefinite cease fire. How truthful is the US remains to be seen given the above mentioned strategy. Future attacks by the US cannot be ruled out. Furthermore, if Iran does not falter, the use of nuclear devices by the US or Israel against that country is a possibility, especially given the utter contempt and disdain for non-western life these two countries have displayed over the years.
Ever since the fall of the Soviet Union, the world has been dominated by the US, its vassals and proxies. The simultaneous rise of both Russia and China coupled with the emergence of the BRICS have challenged the old unipolar world order, a multi polar world now appears to be in the works. This change of the Guard may well be unstoppable. Either the US accepts a more balanced distribution of world power or it does everything it can to slow down the rise of this new multipolar world.
In a way, the US is caught between a hammer and a hard place. There are 2 broad choices (1) the US backs off from world hegemony then loses dominance, the US dollar ceases to be the prime world currency, it defaults on its debt and standards of living in the US drops significantly. (2) The US does a “fuite en avant” and continues its endless wars to a horrific end.
Interestingly enough, it could well be that the Trump administration is still unsure of what path to choose. Ever since the February attack on Iran, Trump has called for multiple cease-fires. Victorious countries do not do that in times of war. It is possible that the Trump administration has come to the conclusion that to defeat Iran will involve such destruction across West Asia that the consequences will be catastrophic for everybody US included. If so, it might just be possible that the current administration has decided that a gradual and controlled down scaling from world hegemony is a goal well worth pursuing. Only time will tell.
Karim Jaufeerally
